Understanding the Myth of 'Favorites Always Lose' in Soccer Betting
Many people, despite having technical skills in soccer betting, fail to achieve good results. The reason? Misguided by wrong concepts. It’s like being an expert marksman who can’t hit the target because the scope or the gun is malfunctioning. Similarly, many bettors understand the game and data analysis techniques but often misinterpret match outcomes – a classic case of 'barking up the wrong tree.'
The primary issue lies in misinterpreting data and being misled by deceptive concepts. Among these, the misconception about 'match hotness' is particularly significant. Today, let’s talk about whether the 'favorite' in a match is always doomed to lose.
First, let’s understand what 'match hotness' means. Many misunderstand it as merely 'popularity.' This interpretation misses the mark. Match hotness should refer to the trend in betting money, a result that reflects which outcome attracts more capital after considering the odds.
Take the 2012 European Championship match between the Netherlands and Denmark as an example. The Netherlands, a team brimming with stars and impressive records, was the crowd favorite. However, the opening odds gave them a minimal advantage, suggesting that the bookmakers were disregarding the public opinion. This created an illusion of the Netherlands being the hot favorite.
But in reality, Denmark was not a weak team. They had a strong team ethos, lacking the star power of the Netherlands but not their skill. The bookmakers played into the public’s favoritism towards the Netherlands and manipulated the odds to create 'artificial heat' – not natural popularity. Hence, I recommended betting on Denmark, and they indeed won 1-0 against the Netherlands.
From this example, we should realize what constitutes 'hot favorite.' It’s not just about being popular; it's about whether this popularity is overlooked or even fabricated by bookmakers. Only when this artificial heat is ignored can we call it a 'hot favorite.'
Now, is the 'hot favorite' always doomed? The belief that 'hot favorites always lose' is a naive and ignorant statement. Its essence is 'bookmakers always win.' If a team is heavily favored and wins, it would imply a loss for the bookmakers, which is unlikely. The key is to analyze where the money is, not the apparent popularity.
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